Beyond Web 3.0

Whatever we call the next generation of the Web, what will come after it? Theories range from conservative predictions to guesses that sound more like science fiction films.

Here are just a few:

• According to technology expert and entrepreneur Nova Spivack, the development of the Web moves in 10-year cycles. In the Web’s first decade, most of the development focused on the back end, or infrastructure, of the Web. Programmers created the protocols and code languages we use to make Web pages. In the second decade, focus shifted to the front end and the era of Web 2.0 began. Now people use Web pages as platforms for other applications. They also create mashups and experiment with ways to make Web experiences more interactive. We’re at the end of the Web 2.0 cycle now. The next cycle will be Web 3.0, and the focus will shift back to the back end. Programmers will refine the Internet’s infrastructure to support the advanced capabilities of Web 3.0 browsers. Once that phase ends, we’ll enter the era of Web 4.0. Focus will return to the front end, and we’ll see thousands of new programs that use Web 3.0 as a foundation .

• The Web will evolve into a three-dimensional environment. Rather than a Web 3.0, we’ll see a Web 3D. Combining virtual reality elements with the persistent online worlds of massively multiplayer online roleplaying games (MMORPGs), the Web could become a digital landscape that incorporates the illusion of depth. You’d navigate the Web either from a first-person perspective or through a digital representation of yourself called an avatar (to learn more about an avatar’s perspective, read How the Avatar Machine Works).

• The Web will build on developments in distributed computing and lead to true artificial intelligence. In distributed computing, several computers tackle a large processing job. Each computer handles a small part of the overall task. Some people believe the Web will be able to think by distributing the workload across thousands of computers and referencing deep ontologies. The Web will become a giant brain capable of analyzing data and extrapolating new ideas based off of that information.

• The Web will extend far beyond computers and cell phones. Everything from watches to television sets to clothing will connect to the Internet. Users will have a constant connection to the Web, and vice versa. Each user’s software agent will learn more about its respective user by electronically observing his or her activities. This might lead to debates about the balance between individual privacy and the benefit of having a personalized Web browsing experience.

• The Web will merge with other forms of entertainment until all distinctions between the forms of media are lost. Radio programs, television shows and feature films will rely on the Web as a delivery system.

It’s too early to tell which (if any) of these future versions of the Web will come true. It may be that the real future of the Web is even more extravagant than the most extreme predictions. We can only hope that by the time the future of the Web gets here, we can all agree on what to call it.

To learn more about Web 3.0 and other topics, take a gander at the links on the next page.

Making a Semantic Web

Tim Berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web in 1989. He created it as an interface for the Internet and a way for people to share information with one another. Berners-Lee disputes the existence of Web 2.0, calling it nothing more than meaningless jargon . Berners-Lee maintains that he intended the World Wide Web to do all the things that Web 2.0 is supposed to do.

Berners-Lee’s vision of the future Web is similar to the concept of Web 3.0. It’s called the Semantic Web. Right now, the Web’s structure is geared for humans. It’s easy for us to visit a Web page and understand what it’s all about. Computers can’t do that. A search engine might be able to scan for keywords, but it can’t understand how those keywords are used in the context of the page.

With the Semantic Web, computers will scan and interpret information on Web pages using software agents. These software agents will be programs that crawl through the Web, searching for relevant information. They’ll be able to do that because the Semantic Web will have collections of information called ontologies. In terms of the Internet, an ontology is a file that defines the relationships among a group of terms. For example, the term “cousin” refers to the familial relationship between two people who share one set of grandparents. A Semantic Web ontology might define each familial role like this:

• Grandparent: A direct ancestor two generations removed from the subject
• Parent: A direct ancestor one generation removed from the subject
• Brother or sister: Someone who shares the same parent as the subject
• Nephew or niece: Child of the brother or sister of the subject
• Aunt or uncle: Sister or brother to a parent of the subject
• Cousin: child of an aunt or uncle of the subject

For the Semantic Web to be effective, ontologies have to be detailed and comprehensive. In Berners-Lee’s concept, they would exist in the form of metadata. Metadata is information included in the code for Web pages that is invisible to humans, but readable by computers.

Constructing ontologies takes a lot of work. In fact, that’s one of the big obstacles the Semantic Web faces. Will people be willing to put in the effort required to make comprehensive ontologies for their Web sites? Will they maintain them as the Web sites change? Critics suggest that the task of creating and maintaining such complex files is too much work for most people.

On the other hand, some people really enjoy labeling or tagging Web objects and information. Web tags categorize the tagged object or information. Several blogs include a tag option, making it easy to classify journal entries under specific topics. Photo sharing sites like Flickr allow users to tag pictures. Google even has turned it into a game: Google Image Labeler pits two people against each other in a labeling contest. Each player tries to create the largest number of relevant tags for a series of images. According to some experts, Web 3.0 will be able to search tags and labels and return the most relevant results back to the user. Perhaps Web 3.0 will combine Berners-Lee’s concept of the Semantic Web with Web 2.0′s tagging culture.

Even though Web 3.0 is more theory than reality, that hasn’t stopped people from guessing what will come next. Keep reading to learn about the far-flung future of the Web.

Web 3.0 Approaches

The technologies and software required for this kind of application aren’t yet mature. Services like TiVO and Pandora provide individualized content based on user input, but they both rely on a trial-and-error approach that isn’t as efficient as what the experts say Web 3.0 will be. More importantly, both TiVO and Pandora have a limited scope — television shows and music, respectively — whereas Web 3.0 will involve all the information on the Internet.

Some experts believe that the foundation for Web 3.0 will be application programming interfaces (APIs). An API is an interface designed to allow developers to create applications that take advantage of a certain set of resources. Many Web 2.0 sites include APIs that give programmers access to the sites’ unique data and capabilities. For example, Facebook’s API allows developers to create programs that use Facebook as a staging ground for games, quizzes, product reviews and more.

One Web 2.0 trend that could help the development of Web 3.0 is the mashup. A mashup is the combination of two or more applications into a single application. For example, a developer might combine a program that lets users review restaurants with Google Maps. The new mashup application could show not only restaurant reviews, but also map them out so that the user could see the restaurants’ locations. Some Internet experts believe that creating mashups will be so easy in Web 3.0 that anyone will be able to do it.

WidgetsWidgets are small applications that people can insert into Web pages by copying and embedding lines of code into a Web page’s code. They can be games, news feeds, video players or just about anything else. Some Internet prognosticators believe that Web 3.0 will let users combine widgets together to make mashups by just clicking and dragging a couple of icons into a box on a Web page. Want an application that shows you where news stories are happening? Combine a news feed icon with a Google Earth icon and Web 3.0 does the rest. How? Well, no one has quite figured that part out yet.

Other experts think that Web 3.0 will start fresh. Instead of using HTML as the basic coding language, it will rely on some new — and unnamed — language. These experts suggest it might be easier to start from scratch rather than try to change the current Web. However, this version of Web 3.0 is so theoretical that it’s practically impossible to say how it will work.

The man responsible for the World Wide Web has his own theory of what the future of the Web will be. He calls it the Semantic Web, and many Internet experts borrow heavily from his work when talking about Web 3.0. What exactly is the Semantic Web? Keep reading to find out.

Action games improve vision!

This won’t come as a surprise to anyone who ever sniped in Tribes, or got good enough at Street Fighter II to see kicks coming after a single frame. But to those who think there are no benefits to playing games, one study suggests at least one: improved eyesight.

Now, we’re not talking about going from 20/80 to 20/40 or something, but the study showed that people who had played 50 hours of action games (as opposed to casual games) over the course of 9 weeks showed increased contrast and luminosity detection. Speaking as someone who could (though not at first) bulls-eye a light armor flying through the air from across the map on Broadside, I think that’s the least of our abilities.

Spiceworks Adds Social Media Widgets To IT Networking Software

IT software maker Spiceworks has developed a set of customized plugins and widgets in a variety of categories for the Spiceworks desktop. Spiceworks’ ad-supported, free IT management software allows IT managers at small to mid-size businesses keep track of their network assets, run a helpdesk, monitor activity, receive reports and troubleshoot network problems.

The plugins let you keep track of alerts, tickets, new software, and new hardware, as well as a inventory summaries. Widgets include a help desk widget and reports and inventory widgets and allows users access this information easily. Spiceworks also lets users add themes and skins to the desktop, create customized user portals, and lets users drop in news widgets from RSS feeds and social networking widgets for Twitter, Digg, Facebook, and MySpace.

Spiceworks has also created an IT news community destination for the users of its software. In the community, you can see information that other Spiceworks IT professionals have submitted and also features content that is directed towards the small to medium sized business IT professional community.

Spiceworks says that there have been over 16,000 downloads of its 53 widgets in the past week. The company says that the most popular widgets are the help desk widgets and there have already been 16 language plugins created by the software’s users. Whats Up, another IT network management software, has created mobile access for clients but doesn’t seem to have incorporated the social networking features into the platform.

Spicework’s software has been built around creating a community among IT managers, so its no surprise that the company is now rolling out social media features to its platform. The software lets users connect with other IT managers. When problems come up users can post questions, submit answers and use group-edited wiki articles, etc. The software, which now includes a dashboard, RSS feeds, social networking widgets and a IT news sharing community, seems to almost be turning into a pseudo-social network itself.

Follow the Mobile User

Focus on the mobile user, and all else will follow

Simpler data, better browsers, and a smoother experience

Today the mobile industry finds itself in a unique position to do right by its users:

Worldwide phone penetration continues to climb at a break-neck pace, with over 4 billion mobile subscribers at last count.¹ (In comparison, the PC industry is forecasted to see its sharpest unit decline in history.²) Prevailing economic conditions will accelerate this trend, as users consolidate pricey communication services into cost-effective, all-in-one mobile devices.³ And for the first time ever, half of all new connections to the internet will come from a phone in 2009.⁴

Google’s mobile traffic reflects these milestones — having quintupled since 2007⁵ — and it underscores users’ appetite for mobile data services. But as a community of operators, device manufacturers and software providers, we continue to get in their way. In short, and as a general rule, we make it too costly, too unfamiliar, and too difficult to do anything beyond voice calls.

In reply I offer up three suggestions: simpler data plans, better web browsers, and a smoother on-device experience. And in each case I’ll use Google traffic numbers as a proxy for total internet usage and user happiness.

Disclaimer: As a Google employee using internal data to carry the weight of this article, I owe it to the reader to lay bare my economic incentives: the company I work for has a financial interest in the broad and sweeping adoption of the Internet-as-we-know-it. Indeed, more internet users leads to increased web usage, which often leads to more Google searches and downstream ad clicks. I use Google data because it’s what I know best, and because it reinforces my industry-facing remarks, but make no mistake: I’m fundamentally interested in what’s good for the mobile internet. It just so happens that this is also good for Google. With that said, I hope you’ll find value in the words and data that follow.

Flat is the new phat

Consider MetroPCS, a regional carrier in the United States with just over 5 million subscribers on their 2.5G CDMA network. Over the past year, their Google search volume grew over 2.5x more quickly than another global carrier with 10 times as many users, and a 3G network.⁶

Metro’s “secret” is a free month of web access at signup, with the option of flat-rate, unlimited data thereafter.⁷ As a result nearly half of Metro’s subscribers use the web on a regular basis. (It’s also worth mentioning that MetroPCS was recently recognized for excellence in customer satisfaction.⁸)

In contrast, many operators subject users to a labyrinthine set of data options, from pay-as-you-go to daily caps with significant overage charges. Now, can you imagine paying your at-home internet provider for every page load? Or needing to know the size of a website before visiting it? Or managing your monthly download quota across your entire household? It’s simply not practical, and it’s all the same internet, so why do we treat mobile users as second-class citizens? Case and point: my colleague’s January phone bill contained 27 pages of itemized data charges, spelled out in excruciating detail.⁹

Unless we declare flat the new phat — and soon — I fear Occam will do something terrible with his razor.

They want it all, they want it now

Users “get” the web, and they’ve known for over 10 years that the browser is the thing that takes you there. Likewise, more and more of today’s killer applications are the Amazons and Facebooks of the world, not software that you download to a local machine. So it should come as no surprise that mobile users want phones (and browsers) that put a fully-featured internet in their pocket.

For example: the availability of a modern web browser explains why iPhone and Android users — just 13% of the high-end market¹⁰ — represent nearly 50% of Google’s smartphone traffic worldwide.¹¹

Similarly, users of the T-Mobile G1 and its newer WebKit browser search Google 20 times more often than Nokia Series 60 users.¹²

Both data indicate that it’s about usage — not just units — and this trend will continue unabated with more efficient JavaScript engines, and more sophisticated HTML5-compliant browsers.

The simple truth is that mobile users have wanted fast and full web access all along. Consider two quick facts about Google search behavior: the “tail” of PC and iPhone queries is significantly longer than that of feature phone queries;

and the gap in query diversity between desktop and high-end mobile devices is shrinking.¹³ People want all the world’s information on their most personal of personal computers, and we need to offer browsers that scratch this quintessential itch.

“One web will triumph.”¹⁴ Users want all of it. And they want it now.

Friction is fugly

In the early days of mobile search, customer feedback was clear: “I can’t find Google on my phone.” And in hindsight it makes sense: unintuitive device menus and preference panes mandated 20+ mind-numbing clicks just to locate portal content¹⁵ — nevermind “off net” sites like Google. This Frankenstein’s monster of OEM, carrier, and 3rd party software made it impossible to discover — much less enjoy — mobile data services, and showed a complete disregard for users’ on-device experience.

Thanks to an influx of smarter phones, many mobile users can now reach 3rd party software with a single tap or click. And in Google’s case, this desktop-like experience increases search traffic by many orders of multitude.¹⁶ Why? Because it provides a frictionless onramp to search results. Likewise, and prior to its v5.0 release in February 2009, Google Earth saw more activations on the day of its iPhone launch than any other day in the product’s history. Why? Because the iPhone’s App Store and on-screen layout make it easy to find, try and access mobile data services.

And herein lies the rub: users appreciate well-written software, but ease of use and on-device navigability are critical preconditions for usage. (After all, if you hide a tree in a forest, who cares whether someone hears it fall? Chances are they’ll never find it anyway.) The proliferation of app stores is a positive step in this direction, as are efforts on the part of OEMs to give developers unfettered access to low-level functionality.

We have to surprise and delight users with fast and fluid interfaces. Friction is just fugly.

New Crop of Job Hunters (With Microsoft Résumés)

CHRIS PALADINO, a Microsoft employee who was hired in 2006, didn’t worry too much about his job when the economy began to sour last fall. The company employs nearly 90,000 people.

“I thought Microsoft was so stable, it wouldn’t be touched,” he said. Now, as one of the 1,400 employees who received layoff notices in January, Mr. Paladino is worried — about making the mortgage payments on his home.

Mr. Paladino gathered user feedback for the Xbox games division of Microsoft. This month he started his own consulting company, Promethium Marketing, with two colleagues who were also laid off.

But, “I would never have chosen to leave Microsoft,” he said. “I had a great job. I worked with a great team.”

Leaving the company has not always been so traumatic. Microsoft has a long history of making employees part-owners of the company, by granting them stock and stock options.

From executive to secretary, many employees received thousands of stock options. Microsoft’s stock price rose from about $2.50 a share in 1992 to almost $60 in 1999, and roughly 10,000 of those employees became millionaires.

When employees left the company in those days, it was overwhelmingly by their own choice. They were off to a new adventure, starting a business or a charity, or just planning to have fun, said Rob Horwitz, the chief executive of Directions on Microsoft, an information technology analyst firm that has been tracking the company for 17 years.

Notable alumni from that time rebuilt the Professional Bowlers Association; created the charity Room to Read, which builds schools in poor countries; and founded the Cranium game company (which was sold to Hasbro).

Other Microsoft alumni started venture capital firms or followed more personal dreams, creating enterprises like the Cameron Catering Company of Seattle, which focuses on green events, or the Casa Cupula, a bed-and-breakfast for gay travelers in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. One alumnus built his own airplane and another rode along with Russian cosmonauts on a space mission. The sky was literally the limit.

The economy has changed all that. With Microsoft’s stock price now below $20 a share, any stock options granted in the last 10 years have little to no value, and the outright stock grants have lost value.

So rather than leaving on their own terms for a new adventure, some recently separated employees are now looking for any professional job they can get. (Microsoft declined to comment for this article.)

Wendy Pravda, a Web marketing manager who was laid off by Microsoft in January, said she was open to working full time for another technology company, part time as a contractor or using her skills in a different industry. “I used to look for all the great perks,” she said. “Now if I can find stability, I’ll be happy.”

In her role as a Web marketing manager, Ms. Pravda directed vendors who bid on Internet search terms and placed advertisements for her products. She says she may need to do such tasks herself in a future job, because “the management layer is gone” at some companies making cuts.

Longer-term employees are more likely to have built up savings and may be less concerned about the immediate future. Corey Salka, who worked for the company for 17 years before he was laid off, said the Microsoft stock and the savings he built in the 1990s would allow him to “hit the reset button” on his career and move into his new passion: renewable energy.

One employee who saw the good and not-so-good times is Maura van der Linden. She came up through the ranks from group assistant to software tester to technical writer over 13 years. She was laid off in January. She remembers when stock options were called golden handcuffs, because they induced people to stay at the company to become wealthy.

Like many other laid-off workers, some former Microsoft employees are connecting through social networking sites like Facebook. One group recently had 196 members and included posts that ranted, lamented and offered advice. Recruiters have also found their way to these social networking groups to advertise jobs.

Microsoft has said it will eliminate 5,000 jobs, including the 1,400 already announced, by mid-2010. Joshua Corneil, who came to Microsoft after college three years ago and was laid off in January, sees a silver lining in being one of the first to be let go.

“I’d rather be in the first 1,400 and get the first shot at the job market here,” he said. “Right now, small companies see me as Microsoft talent, Microsoft trained, and that’s a big deal to them,” he said. “My performance reviews show them it was the economy and not my performance that lost me my job.”

THE layoffs have fostered changes in the company, said Ms. van der Linden, who keeps in touch with colleagues at Microsoft. “People seem more interested in showing off their ideas and what they can do, so they aren’t the next ones to get laid off,” she said.

At the same time, “the people who have kept their jobs seem to have more gratitude toward the company,” Mr. Horwitz said. “It’s still the mother ship, the household name — but now people see that as a sign of strength, not stodginess.”

In the 1990s, the company had a hard time retaining some of its most talented people, Mr. Horwitz said. “People were jumping ship for dot-com this and dot-com that,” he said. Now the pendulum has swung the other way.